From the Forum Page
of the Oct 19, 2021 Star Phoenix
Research needed to
secure water
By John Pomeroy
Following is the opinion of the writer, a professor of geography and Canada
Research Chair in water resources and climate change at the University of
Saskatchewan.
Western Canada is undergoing its greatest economic expansion in its history,
an expansion that is reliant on adequate water resources for its communities,
industry and agriculture.
Water is also critical to aquatic life and the pristine environment that Westerners
cherish.
Water in this part of Canada is currently unpredictable, misunderstood, and
diminishing. We need better predictive tools if we are to manage this critical
resource in a responsible and sustainable fashion.
Canada is steward to about 20 per cent of the world’s fresh water. Its
cold regions — the Rockies and the Yukon and Northwest Territories — are
the source of much of western Canada’s water. Yet we have limited ability
to assess and predict the stability of this resource given shifts in land use
and changing climate. We simply don’t understand the complex snow, glacier,
permafrost, vegetation, wetland, lake, stream and climate systems that control
water supply.
Our ignorance is risky. Alberta and Saskatchewan cities, manufacturing, potash
mines, and irrigation depend almost completely upon the Saskatchewan River
system, which delivers water from the Rocky Mountains to the Prairies with
minimal contribution from local runoff. These river flows are dropping.
Natural flows entering the South Saskatchewan River have fallen 15 per cent
since the early 1900s. Low-flow years in this river coincide with low spring
snowpacks in the Rockies.
Our use of this water is almost at our selfimposed limits. Alberta used up
to 42 per cent of the natural flow in a recent low snowfall year — close
to its quota of 50 per cent specified in the Prairie Provinces Water Board
Master Agreement on Apportionment.
Since 1912, there has been a decline in real flows of the South Saskatchewan
River of about 40 per cent due to a combination of diminished supply and increased
water use.
The Yukon and Mackenzie Rivers are growing economic development and population
corridors, but stream flow now comes earlier and with lower peak flows than
30 years ago. Proposed oil and gas developments involve hundreds of expensive
bridges or pipeline stream crossings — yet we can’t predict how
high to build these crossings to ensure costeffective and safe engineering
designs during spring floods.
These floods also threaten riverside communities. Excessive runoff from the
Rockies in June 2005 caused more than $420 million in flood damage in Alberta
and Saskatchewan.
Weather systems that affect all of the Northern Hemisphere are generated in
our high mountains and northern latitudes. Better prediction of this weather — storm
or drought — depends upon our knowledge of snowcover, lakes, and wetlands.
Although the North has thousands of lakes and wetlands, water is not abundant
in this area. Vast tracts of its lands are as dry, or drier, than the Prairies
in terms of annual snow and rainfall. Only low evaporation and exceptionally
poor drainage allow standing water to accumulate. Furthermore, modest streamflows
limit the potential for industry and hydroelectricity, and do not effectively
transport pollution away from the source. Water quality problems of northern
settlements can be severe.
Another serious misconception is the link between declining glaciers in the
Rockies and future water shortages on the Prairies. The area in the Rockies
covered by glaciers has declined substantially — by 37 per cent for the
South Saskatchewan River basin and by 22 per cent in the North Saskatchewan
basin since 1975 — and that melt is important to local mountain streams.
But these streams are now so small they don’t contribute significantly
to the river flow.
Recent federal studies show glacier melt accounts for less than 0.6 per cent
of the yearly flow of the Bow River at Calgary, and less than 1.8 per cent
in the North Saskatchewan River in Edmonton.
Even in the driest months of late summer, glaciers only account for 2.4 per
cent and 7.8 per cent of monthly flow of these rivers. Downstream storage and
flow control reservoirs, such as Lake Diefenbaker, make the importance of these
glacial contributions negligible.
The flow of the Saskatchewan River system is primarily provided by melting
winter snow. It is snowpack rather than further glacier decline that we should
be concerned with.
Water management demands more than conjecture; it must be based on sound scientific
and engineering principles. For example, the centre for hydrology at the University
of Saskatchewan is directed toward improving understanding of water resources
and developing hydrology as a geophysical science.
National and provincial funding agencies have invested almost $3 million in
hydrological research and facilities at the centre.
Most recently, the Canadian Foundation for Climate and Atmospheric Sciences
committed $2.5 million to the improved processes and parameterisation for prediction
in cold regions (IP3) network. Based at the centre for hydrology, IP3 is a
Canada-wide research network devoted to improving understanding of surface
water and weather systems in cold regions, particularly in Canada’s Rocky
Mountains and Western Arctic regions: issues of key importance to agriculture,
urban and industrial development.
We cannot chart a responsible course with our water resources by flying blind.
We need these strategic investments in research to develop the predictive tools
we need to sustainably manage our water. Without them, our continued prosperity
and the fate of our environmental treasures will both be in question.